Will Pennsylvania’s Election Day Rain Hurt Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Some Pennsylvania voters could be disrupted by rainy weather on Election Day, depending on where their polling location is in the state.
As Election Day nears, meteorologists are honing their forecasts for November 5’s weather across the nation, and rainy weather could deter some voters from venturing to the polls in northwestern Pennsylvania. Voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show an extremely tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
And while more than 1.6 million ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania because of early voting and mail-in ballots, those waiting until Election Day could face rainy weather.
Depending on the speed of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest and across the nation, some voters in northwestern Pennsylvania could encounter rain while trying to cast their votes on Tuesday, AccuWeather reported. However, newer forecasts are showing the rain may miss Pennsylvania altogether.
Poor weather has a history of affecting people hoping to cast their votes. In 2007, a study by the University of Georgia, the University of California, Merced, and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than Republicans. Voter turnout dropped by 1 percent per each inch of rain. Snowfall also decreased voter turnout, and it was more likely to affect the elderly.
“In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans,” the study said.
A more recent study, in the journal Electoral Studies in 2023, found that rainy weather more likely affects young voters in their mid-20s or younger and decreased their turnout by nearly 6 percent.
A 2018 study published in Sage Journals similarly found that rainfall “decreases the Democratic candidate’s vote share by as much as 2.08% points, while it increases the Republican candidate’s vote share by 1.00% point.”
However, Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who lives in Ohio, told Newsweek that both Republican and Democratic voters feel committed to voting in this election and that it’s unlikely either candidate will benefit from inclement weather in the swing states. Short of a disaster-level event, Weaver doubts rain will keep members of either party from voting on Election Day.
He also said that Trump supporters feel an “exuberance and energy” for their candidate that is “unparalleled in modern American politics.”
Whereas those voters might be less likely to vote because of poor weather during other election cycles, that won’t be the case with Trump on the ticket this year, Weaver said. “His supporters will move mountains to get to the polls because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America.”
Meanwhile, Weaver said, Harris supporters are motivated more by their hate for Trump than by their love for Harris.
“Given how energetic both sides are this year, and given how common early voting has become, I don’t know that weather is going to be a factor as much as it might be in a different year,” Weaver said.
As for this Tuesday, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman told Newsweek that inclement weather might benefit Harris at the polls.
“It’s possible that poor weather will make low-propensity voters—those who don’t historically vote or those less engaged—stay home,” Cooperman said. “These are voters that Trump is courting and how he is building his support beyond his base, so this would impact Trump’s vote. Older voters may also be more inclined to stay home in bad weather, but older voters are more split between Trump and Harris and many of these voters also vote early.
“Harris’ base of support tends to be among more habitual voter groups, and thus she will be less impacted by bad weather,” Cooperman said.
In 2020, Trump lost to President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes, although Trump won the state in 2016.
As of Friday, polling aggregator site FiveThirtyEight showed Trump leading Harris, 47.9 percent to 47.6 percent, in Pennsylvania.
Rain also is in the forecast for Michigan and Wisconsin, though forecasts show dry weather for North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.