The Battleground State Where Kamala Harris Is Winning the Most Republicans

Vice President Kamala Harris is ramping up efforts to win over Republicans in the final few weeks of her campaign, and polls suggest these efforts may be most effective in one particular battleground state.
With less than three weeks until Election Day, polls point to a very close race between Harris and former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, voters in some states are already casting their ballots. There is no clear front-runner at this point, with swing states remaining closely divided.
Harris is taking several steps to make inroads with Republican voters who may be hesitant to back Trump in November.
On Wednesday, she is set to sit down for an interview on Fox News, whose viewership skews Republican, and will also tout endorsements from Republicans such as former Representative Liz Cheney at a rally in Bucks County, a suburban area just outside of Philadelphia, that could be consequential in how the state votes.
Pennsylvania appears to be the state where her outreach to Republican voters is working best, according to recent surveys from two major pollsters.
A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris winning 12 percent of Republicans in the state. It surveyed 857 likely voters from October 7 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris winning 9 percent of Republicans in Pennsylvania. It surveyed 1,412 likely voters from October 3 to 7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
J. Wesley Leckrone, a professor and chair of political sciences at Widener University, told Newsweek on Tuesday that Harris may be able to peel away Republican support for Trump in the Philadelphia suburbs. He specifically pointed to vote-rich Montgomery and Chester counties, where former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley won nearly a quarter of the vote against Trump in the GOP primary.
“I think what you see is a lot of disaffected, never-Trump, anti-Trump Republicans who may still be holding on to their identity,” he said.
Abortion is a key issue for moderate voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, and it may be convincing some Republicans to vote for Harris, Leckrone said. Emphasizing issues like tax relief and support for small businesses may also appeal to anti-Trump Republicans, he added.
Meanwhile, Trump’s argument that a Harris presidency would be a continuation of the Biden administration could convince some Republicans to stick with the GOP nominee, even if they don’t particularly like him, Leckrone said.
While picking off Republicans matters for Harris, ground game and maximizing turnout among Democrats may be more consequential for the election’s outcome at this point, he said.
In a statement, Trump adviser Brian Hughes told Newsweek that Harris is “underperforming with her own party.”
“In 2020 Pennsylvania exit polls, GOP voters went 91 percent to President Trump, with 8 percent to Biden. The same exit polls for Democrat voters went 7 percent for President Trump and 92 percent for Biden. By comparison, Pennsylvania polling from the Wall Street Journal last week shows among GOP voters President Trump is winning 91 percent to Harris’ 6. The same poll shows Democrats 7 percent with Trump and 86 percent with Harris,” Hughes said.
He said Harris’ “policies are so unpopular with Democrats that she is spending a lot of her time and money in the final three weeks targeting Black voters, one of her party’s most consistent demographics in past elections.”
The Times poll found that while Harris is winning 11 percent of registered Republicans, Trump is winning 10 percent of registered Democrats. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump winning 4 percent of Democrats in Pennsylvania.
Newsweek reached out via email to the Harris campaign for comment.
Pennsylvania, with 19 Electoral College votes, is seen as a must-win for Harris. Sweeping the Great Lakes and Rust Belt swing states—which include Michigan and Wisconsin—may be her easiest path to victory, as polls have been slightly better for Harris in that region than in the Southern and Sun Belt swing states.
If she fails to carry Pennsylvania, her path to victory becomes narrower, as she would need to win multiple states in the Sun Belt and South—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—where polls have been less favorable to her.
Pennsylvania is roughly divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are banking on shifts in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to carry Harris across the finish line. Republicans, however, have made gains in the rural parts of the state in recent years and are hoping to chip away at Harris’ margins with Black and Hispanic voters in places like Philadelphia.
It voted for President Joe Biden by 1.2 points in 2020 and backed Trump by 0.7 points in 2016. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed Harris up 0.7 points on Wednesday, the same margin she led by one month earlier, on September 16.
Harris is winning over fewer Republicans in other swing states. The Times/Siena College polling suggested Michigan and Wisconsin may be the states where she is winning over the second-highest number of Republicans, at 5 percent each.
The Times’ latest polls showed Harris winning 6 percent of Republicans in Arizona, 4 percent in Nevada and 3 percent in both Georgia and North Carolina. Quinnipiac University found Harris winning 3 percent of Republicans in Michigan and 4 percent each in Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
In Bucks County, Harris is expected to be joined at the rally by more than 100 former Republicans and Trump aides, reported CBS News.
Some Republicans have declined to back Trump, particularly over his actions on January 6, 2021, when a group of his supporters violently protested the results of the 2020 election, which he has claimed was stolen despite a lack of evidence. The January 6 Capitol riot, as well as abortion, are two issues Democrats hope will sway moderate Republicans toward Harris.
But the race still remains extremely close, both nationally and in key swing states. FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Harris a 2.5-point lead on Wednesday, nearly identical to the 2.7-point lead she held on September 16.